Sometimes You Have to Break Something to Fix It

Sometimes, to fix something, you first have to break it.

History is full of examples. The First World War destroyed Europe’s empires. The Second World War shattered colonialism and gave birth to the United Nations, NATO, and the modern international economic system. The collapse of the Soviet Union redrew the political map of Europe and Central Asia almost overnight.

Whether we like it or not, the Iran war appears poised to become another such inflection point.

The Middle East that existed before this conflict is unlikely to return. Too much has changed. Trust has evaporated. Security assumptions have collapsed. Countries that once relied on outside powers for protection are reassessing those relationships, while regional powers are reconsidering who their long-term partners and rivals really are. Analysts across multiple policy institutions argue that the conflict is accelerating a broader regional realignment, although they differ on what the eventual balance of power will look like.

The real question is not whether the region will change. It already has.

The question is: what replaces the old order?

Perhaps the era of unquestioned American dominance gives way to a more multipolar Middle East. Perhaps regional powers—Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, and others—begin taking greater responsibility for their own security architecture. Perhaps new trade corridors, energy arrangements, and diplomatic institutions emerge, reducing dependence on outside powers. Or perhaps the region simply enters a prolonged period of instability before a new equilibrium finally emerges.

Whatever the outcome, one thing seems increasingly clear: the status quo has been broken.

And once history reaches that point, there is rarely any going back.