Every great power eventually makes a strategic mistake so profound that future generations struggle to understand how it happened.
Britain underestimated the American colonies.
Napoleon invaded Russia.
Hitler invaded the Soviet Union.
The United States invaded Iraq.
Each decision made perfect sense to its advocates at the time. Each promised security. Each promised victory. Yet each ultimately left the country making the decision in a weaker strategic position than before.
I believe history may add another example to that list.
The decision to abandon the JCPOA in 2018, followed by the policy of maximum pressure and ultimately the war of 2026, may come to be remembered not as Israel’s greatest strategic victory, but as America’s greatest strategic blunder of the twenty-first century.
Why?
Because the objective was to isolate Iran. The outcome was to isolate America from Iran.
There is a difference.
For more than four decades, the public narrative suggested that Iran and the United States were irreconcilable enemies. Yet history tells a more complicated story. Behind the rhetoric, there were repeated moments when both countries quietly cooperated because their interests happened to align. Iran assisted after the invasion of Afghanistan. Both countries benefited from the removal of Saddam Hussein. The Iran-Contra affair demonstrated that even during periods of intense hostility, channels of communication remained open. It was never a relationship based on trust, but it was one that preserved options.
The JCPOA was important not simply because it addressed Iran’s nuclear program. It mattered because it kept those options alive. It acknowledged an uncomfortable reality that experienced diplomats have always understood: countries do not have permanent friends or permanent enemies. They have permanent interests.
That principle was abandoned in 2018.
Israel had argued for years that the agreement legitimized Iran and should be dismantled. President Trump accepted that argument and withdrew the United States. Whether one believes that the decision was right or wrong is almost secondary today. The more important question is what happened next.
Iran did not collapse. Its government survived. Its regional influence evolved rather than disappeared.
Most importantly, Iran concluded that if accommodation with the West was no longer possible, it had little choice but to deepen its relationships with Russia and China.
That may prove to be the real strategic legacy of the past decade.
Look at a map.
Iran is not simply another Middle Eastern state. It is the geographic bridge between the Persian Gulf, the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. It borders some of the world’s most important energy corridors and possesses enormous reserves of oil and natural gas. It occupies territory that every major empire has regarded as strategically indispensable for centuries.
Now ask a simple question.
If the greatest long-term challenge facing the United States is managing competition with Russia and China, why would America pursue policies that encourage one of the world’s most strategically important countries to align more closely with both?
That is the question remarkably few people are asking.
Instead, we continue debating whether individual military operations succeeded or failed, whether sanctions were sufficiently tough, or whether another round of bombing might produce a different result.
Those are tactical questions. Strategy asks something entirely different.
Who is stronger today than they were ten years ago?
Russia has expanded its strategic relationship with Iran.
China has deepened its economic and energy partnership with Tehran.
Iran, having lost confidence that meaningful accommodation with Washington is possible, has invested heavily in eastern partnerships that will likely endure long after today’s political leaders have left office.
Whether this alignment becomes permanent remains to be seen. Nations ultimately pursue interests, not friendships. But there is little doubt that rebuilding trust between Washington and Tehran will now be far more difficult than it was before 2018.
That should concern every American strategist, regardless of political party.
Supporters of abandoning the JCPOA argue that the agreement failed to address Iran’s missile program, regional activities, and long-term nuclear ambitions. Those are legitimate concerns, and any honest assessment must acknowledge them.
But strategy is measured by outcomes, not intentions.
If the long-term consequence of American policy has been to accelerate cooperation between Iran, Russia, and China, then it is fair to ask whether the United States solved one problem only to create a much larger one.
History has a habit of asking uncomfortable questions. This may become one of them.
Israel succeeded in persuading America to confront Iran more aggressively. But if that confrontation ultimately strengthened the geopolitical position of Russia and China while permanently pushing Iran into their orbit, then historians may conclude that Israel won the argument in Washington—but America lost something far more valuable.
It lost strategic flexibility to shape the future of one of the world’s most important nations.
Prioritizing Israel’s concerns over Iran is a huge mistake. Israel is a small nation of 7 million people, at constant war with its neighbors and with an unstable government and virtually no natural resources. Iran, on the other hand, has a huge industrial base, massive natural resources, and a population of 100 million. Iran holds the key to Central Asia, i.e., a massive market with 300 million people – and a vital strategic position. Control of Central Asia also provides a massive land mass from Moscow to Tehran to Beijing, which will dominate the next century.
It’s truly a huge strategic mistake. We have basically foregone our global leadership to an evil regime in Israel.
Israel’s regime, we know from first-hand experience, meddles in US politics, has active espionage rings operating in the US, operates nefarious programs – and its government conducts genocidal operations and is hated across the world! It’s a shit partner. It’s a shit ally. Israel is a liability. How can their strategic goals be associated with the United States and dictate our policies and priorities?
Before this article is accused of Trump-bashing, I want to make it clear that these decisions to prioritize Israel have been bipartisan decisions with the full support of many long-standing members of government. Joe Biden did not rejoin the JCPOA. Joe Biden did not prosecute Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell! Joe Biden never prosecuted Donald Trump for his blatant constitutional violations. Israel’s genocide in Gaza started during Joe Biden’s administration. Everyone in government over the last 10 years has been responsible for this mistake.
And this is the kind of mistake history rarely forgives.
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