{"id":429,"date":"2026-07-30T17:17:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T17:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ayatoilet.com\/?p=429"},"modified":"2026-07-30T21:34:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T21:34:11","slug":"the-tragedy-of-missed-deals-originally-posted-as-a-comment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ayatoilet.com\/?p=429","title":{"rendered":"The Tragedy of Missed Deals (Originally Posted as a comment)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In my view, the opportunity for a negotiated settlement has become much narrower than it once was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, there is no deal to be had now. No negotiated solution. None. It\u2019s impossible to make any deal with Trump (and more generally the United States). JCPOA looks amazing now in retrospect. And every subsequent \u2018potential deal\u2019 will be systematically worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what\u2019s next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Land invasion is out of the question – casualties too high; huge resource demand! Won\u2019t happen. If it happens, it will be so dumb, so stupid \u2026 it will bring down Trump immediately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possibility 1. War drags on at some level on and off – tit for tat. Trump loses bigly in November- he\u2019s impeached. New admin comes in (JD) \u2026 brokers a deal. By then the world economy will be on its knees. Iran will get everything it wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possibility 2. War escalates. Becomes an inferno. US and allies bomb heavily. Iran retaliates. It\u2019s will just be MAD. And more likely Iran pulls out a few \u2018Trump cards\u2019 (excuse the pun)! Trump card (a) regional militias. Literally millions of organized fighters in half a dozen countries – armed, trained, locked and loaded – who report to Tehran. Houthis are at one end of it, but there\u2019s a lot more. Trump card (b) Iran uses even more devastating missiles: hits Riyadh\u2019s desalination plant, hits Dubai\u2019s desalination plant, etc., making life a living inferno across the whole region. If Trump thought ordinary Iranians would take to the streets – he ain\u2019t seen nothing yet. Imagine slave (Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Philippine) labor in Dubai or Doha raiding their master\u2019s mansions (remember they outnumber the locals 10 to 1)! That\u2019s another army (rabbit) Iran can pull out of a hat. And there\u2019s more. Again, the world economy will be on its knees. Iran will get everything it wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In both scenarios, Iran has a real shot of not only getting everything it wants, i.e., what\u2019s in the MOU – but there\u2019s the additional potential to literally grab Gulf states, i.e., to march in, conquer the region too as the US retreats. US defeat is by implication a defeat for all these states (including Azerbaijan by the way – that has been a take off point for Israeli air attacks). Suddenly the MOU looks like it could have been the preferred arrangement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any realistic analysis of the situation, it just gets progressively worse for the US and its allies. The last deal (that Israel quashed) looks great again. But it will be a massive – huge – strategic defeat not only for the US \/ Israel but also the Gulf dictators. There is no question about it. The facts are compelling. Iran will not capitulate. Iran has the upper hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be no one peddling the Persian Gulf\u2019s name after all this is said and done as the Arabian Gulf. No one peddling sanctions and containment for 47 years while simultaneously busting and aiding the mullah regime (to keep it in power so they have a pretext for continuous sanctions). No more double dealing\u2026 forked tongues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One more thing: Israel will be seriously wounded. And it might be the right time to force Israel into a final Peace with its neighbors. It will be a good time to denuclearize Israel too. When historians look at this in 100 years, this might be the biggest, most positive outcome of all. The mad dog will have been tamed. And maybe, just maybe, they will take their hands out of US (and European) domestic politics. And just let everyone live in peace. In some ways, an Iranjan win will actually be a huge win for the people of America and the West – because it might be the one thing that finally gets Israel out of their political machines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it just might prompt the US to seriously consider reducing its global military footprint. Sit back and let the world live in peace and use some of its huge defense budget to pay down its massive debt load.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best strategic outcome for America might be a loss. A loss might be a huge win! This is indeed a Diamond for everyone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In my view, the opportunity for a negotiated settlement has become much narrower than it once was. Sadly, there is no deal to be had now. No negotiated solution. None. It\u2019s impossible to make any deal with Trump (and more generally the United States). JCPOA looks amazing now in retrospect. And every subsequent \u2018potential deal\u2019 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Tragedy of Missed Deals (Originally Posted as a comment) - AYATOILET<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/ayatoilet.com\/?p=429\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Tragedy of Missed Deals (Originally Posted as a comment) - AYATOILET\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In my view, the opportunity for a negotiated settlement has become much narrower than it once was. 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