In the old days, (pre-toppling of the Shah, i.e. 1979), there was a global airline called PanAm. PanAm had its hub for “Central Asia” in Tehran. When I was a young boy, in Tehran, I would visit my grandmother’s house in Yousefabad, and go cycling in the neighborhood by Hotel Laleh. There I would see PanAm air stewards get on and off busses.
Why did PanAm pick Iran as a hub? Well, let’s see? In those days, Qatar or Dubai were little fishing villages? And, oh, Tehran’s year-round temperatures are so much more pleasant than Qatar or Dubai’s sweltering heat. Oh, and let’s not forget one major fact – Tehran (and Mashhad too by the way), is some 1000 miles (yes, Miles) less flying distance to and from India, and the Far East to Europe and North America. That’s some ‘serious’ operational cash savings.
In come the Brits. Hated, as they are in Iran, for blatantly stealing Iranian oil for decades. And needing a cash infusion via North Sea oil. So as a revenge tactic, and to bring in desperately needed cash, imposed the Mullahs on Iran, and effectively shut down Iranian oil for 30 years. They pushed oil prices to the limit – to make their expensive North Sea (and Alaskan) fieldsprofitable. Containing Iran served their purpose. In fact, containing Iraq too (via the Iran-Iraq war) served their purpose too.
Quietly and ever so gently, they built up Dubai – as a surrogate facility. Made it a regional hub. And then used Dubai to profit from sanction busting Iranian imports, as a transshipment port. Dubai also became the epi-center to create major new airlines with Arab cash. New air-bus planes, equipped with British (Rolls-Royce engines), were sold to upstart Arab airlines and voila: Arabs are suddenly funding huge numbers of European workers affiliated with Dubai, Qatar, etc. Emirate Airlines, Etihad Airlines, Qatar Airways … we’re talking over 1000 passenger planes, over 100 cargo planes …and counting. Having spent several hundred billion dollars for new planes these past decades, while Iran was ‘contained’, these airlines have over $100 Billion dollars in new, unfulfilled orders – TODAY. Between them, they employ literally hundreds of thousands of people all over the world. They carry literally over 100 million passengers. They have brought almost a trillion dollars in new construction into the region, with new airports, new hotels, skyscrapers etc. ALL on the back of these airlines. These Sheikhdoms, have become wealthy on the backs of Iran. And the Brits have done all this quietly to stab Iranians in the back. They have profited from Iran’s containment.
So now, there is a whisper that sanctions on Iran will be lifted. That Iran might not be so ‘contained’ after-all. That Iran might be allowed to buy planes. And they (the Arabs) are all shitting in their pants.
The Brits have moved quickly to change course and get into Iran again, before Iran explodes again – to profit from an Iranian resurgence. But, poor Dubai and Qatar. They are looking at the horizon and potentially seeing their demise floating in the desert winds blowing across the Persian Gulf towards Iran.
When you look at the business case, the logistical benefits of an Iranian hub are compelling. Yes, 1000 miles less flying, less fuel, less wear and tear on planes, on engines…. BUT, big BUT, there is another critical element no one is even talking about: Human resources.
A hub must have mechanics. A hub must have easy access to Pilots, air stewards … i.e. people. Iran with a population of 75 Million highly educated, well-motivated ‘people’ – has it all. Qatar on the other hand, has a bunch of ‘essentially’ spoilt brats. Qataris don’t want to work. They, after all, import their labor. They have labor ghettos packed with people from Bangladesh, and Philippines. But, quite simply, neither Dubai nor Qatar have the people to run airlines. It’s very clear, that every single airline competing with Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airlines etc. i.e. European and American airline, given a choice will select an Iranian hub over a hub in the Southern Persian Gulf. And, by the way, it’s a fantastic competitive move by them, they will be able to compete against increasingly aggressive competition from these airlines BECAUSE of the massive benefits an Iranian hub would provide. It’s a no brainer.
So what these Arab countries (Dubai, Qatar etc.) are facing is a complete regional transformation. Iran’s opening will be disruptive. It will change everything.
Knowing all this, what do they do? Well, they pay off European and American politicians to buy time. You see, according to the Western press, Iranians are evil. Iranians are terrorists. Listen to their politicians and you will hear the very worst things said about Iran and Iranians. Do a google search … put in “Iran is” and it will suggest “evil” next.
And if they can’t buy all the politicians in Europe, they can for sure pay off people like Senator Tom Cotton, or Newt Gingrich or Rudy Giuliani … you name the most vocal anti-Iranian western politician and you can be sure you have found the biggest political whore, … a prostitute. These politicians have sold their spot on podiums, and rented out their microphones for money to these dictators on the Persian Gulf … by attacking Iran and Iranians.
Who are these whores protecting? Americans?
I am no fan of the regime in Iran. But stopping sales of planes to Iran is downright criminal. Iran has had to resort to buying shit planes from whoever would sell them to Iranians, and the consequences speak for themselves. Close to 2000 Iranians have died in air accidents. This is a crime against Iranians.
If the goal is to ‘open up’ Iran, and bring Iranians into a new global fold – the very worst thing to do – is to limit travel and access by Iranians overseas. Keeping Iranians inside Iran, reinforces the regime in Iran. It keeps Iranians ignorant, and susceptible to regime propaganda.
There are those who say, selling Iran airplanes would be equivalent to re-arming their air force. That, my friends is hog wash. Nothing could be more different than the electronics, engines, and controls of a fighter plane and a Boeing 777. Bullshit like this, is scare mongering… by people that are scrapping the bottom trying to find excuses to keep Iran contained. What astounds me the most, is that these politicians must really think people are stupid.
But, sadly, there is enough money floating out there to buy politicians and journalists for new sanctions against Iran to stick.
So what’s going to happen?
Well, it’s simple. Iran will buy Brazilian and Japanese planes. And, slowly but surely, just like the Auto industry the U.S. will lose its global dominance in another major transportation products segment. Iran has already ordered Mitsubishi regional jets. The Chinese too are launching their own competing products with Airbus and Boeing. Boeing will eventually see a bloodbath, it has never seen before. Airbus already sells more planes than Boeing, and it won’t be long before the Chinese muscle in.
When workers get laid off in Seattle at Boeing plants in a decade or so, don’t blame Iran. Blame the Arabs and whores who took their money to contain Iran. Because, you see, Iran’s case as a transportation hub is compelling. And Iran will be a major market of planes – of all shapes and sizes.
No, Iranians are not evil. No, Iran is Not trying to build a nuclear bomb. No, Iran is not a terrorist state (not a single terrorist or bombing in Europe or America has had anything to do with Iran or Iranians). If you are looking for funders of ISIS or terrorists – look no further than Saudi Arabia, Qatar or the UAE (Dubai). Yes, those Kings, Sheikhs, etc. have blood on their hands. Yes, those Kings, Sheikhs etc. are buying your politicians. And yes, your Senators and Congressmen have sold you – and the rest of America to these criminals and could not care less about the U.S. national interest.
Its these Arab states that are impeding relations between Iranians and Americans…. for what? To support their bankrupt business plans. These Kings and Sheikhs cannot and should not be building empires on the backs of ordinary Iranians. Iranians should not die in air crashes because these dictators own a bunch of airlines. Oh, I am sorry, I forgot – they never, ever cared for Iranians anyway … that is why they funded Saddam Hussein to invade Iran, that led to over one million casualties. They never cared. They never will care. And as far as they are concerned Americans are a bunch of idiots that they can simply buy with their money.
But, if there is one lesson you learn from being in business almost 30 years is: ‘fundamentals’ matter. Eventually, fundamentals dominate and dictate. You can twist something with marketing and propaganda, but you can’t hide fundamental facts forever. The truly better product will eventually win.
And, it’s a simple fact, that Iran is a superior hub, in the world’s fastest growing regions. Iran IS the key to Central Asia, China and India. It’s the “Center”, it’s the hub! And it’s 1000 miles closer to Europe and North America. No Arab King or Sheikh can change that. And, it will only be a matter of time before real American patriots get it. My fear is, it will all come too late – and the U.S. will lose whatever foothold it has in the region. After spending over 4 trillion dollars, the U.S. has nothing to show. We’ve handed Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran. We’ve completely polarized relations with Iran. And we’re letting a bunch of criminals in the Southern Persian Gulf dictate our policies. It really can’t get any more stupid than that.
And one day, in about a decade, thousands of workers in the U.S. will be laid off by Boeing because we opened Iran up to Japanese and Chinese products. How fucking idiotic?