After traveling to 5 Russian peripheral countries and talking to people, it has become very clear to me that the Ukraine war has been falsely portrayed in the West. We’ve had an onslaught of propaganda. The narrative is entirely wrong. It’s a conspiracy of lies.
Oh, don’t get me wrong, Putin is a thug, and Russia seems to have an unending, irredentist desire for expansion. But it doesn’t take very long to see how many of these countries on the periphery have ‘managed’ to ‘successfully navigate’ their relations with Russia. And by contrast, compare how badly Zelensky and company managed Ukraine’s ties with Russia. You can’t poke a bear and be surprised when it strikes back and keeps striking back. I will explore how this was done in this article.
The second part of this analysis is simple: Ukraine was used not only to poke the bear but as a proxy to fight the bear on behalf of others, not Ukraine. While the war is a disaster for Ukraine itself, it’s being quietly portrayed as a massive win for the West. Zelensky is a pawn. And he has been playing out of someone else’s playbook. There are clearly some outcomes that the West desired and achieved. We will explore what these objectives have been and to what extent they have been accomplished in this article.
And finally, in this article, we will explore how, despite the ‘gains’, it seems to me now (a decade later) has turned into a massive strategic failure, and its consequences (which were poorly analyzed to begin with) seem far-reaching and profoundly detrimental to the West. It’s turned into a shit show. With no end in sight, it’s caused a global realignment that, in the long run, will be unfavorable to Western interests. I will provide my analysis of how the war has resulted in the political and economic unification of the rest of the planet against the West. This cannot be easily reversed or corrected. And now, it’s hard to imagine a path forward that is going to be favorable.
Starting with the first premise: “a provoked war”. If you casually ask folks in neighboring countries about how the war began, you’ll get responses like: What did they think Russia was going to do when Ukraine shut off water to the Crimean Peninsula? Or how was Russia going to respond when it negotiated three agreements (Minsk agreements) with Ukraine to have Ukraine violate every single one – almost as soon as everyone signed them? Later, Chancellor Merkel indicated that the agreements were intended to buy time for Ukraine to prepare for war, suggesting Western preparations began well before Putin’s invasion. Finland, which has a very long border with Russia, the Baltic States, etc., seems to have avoided nonsense once they started toning down their rhetoric and avoided poking the bear. Georgia, after Russia invaded and grabbed 20% of its territory, has also toned down its rhetoric substantially and found peace. They’ve avoided further entanglements.
On the other hand, Zelensky, who was elected via a popular vote after a pro-Russian prior government, was ‘toppled’, started antagonizing Moscow, violated agreements, asked to join NATO, etc., declaring a popular mandate to do so. Yet, he is now scared of holding elections (because Ukraine is at war), and he knows he doesn’t have a popular mandate. And you had people like Victoria Nuland (a well-known US-Israeli operative) in bed with Zelensky, handing out candy in the Maidan (square in Kiev) during the ‘uprising’ to topple the elected pro-Russian government in Ukraine, and get on her cellphone and declare ‘Fuck the EU’ to another American operative. There was clearly a conspiracy behind the scenes to bring a handpicked, Israeli Ukrainian TV comedian to power after the regime was toppled and to poke the bear. And they handed Putin a perfect scenario to invade Ukraine in response. It is clear now that Putin was also looking to not just respond to Zelensky, but for an opportunity to grab Ukraine’s natural resources, i.e., a land and resource grab in Ukraine’s richest regions near the Russian border. It’s like waving your wallet stuffed with hefty bills to a thief.
So, naturally, one must ask why the “West” would have conspired to provoke Putin into war? Clearly, the idea was to undermine Russia’s economy completely and put Putin out of business. Years before Russian pipelines were blown up and Russia was sanctioned, the US retooled its oil and gas operation (using new technology called “fracking’) and established new export (billion-dollar) terminals on its Gulf Coast, which sat unused for several years before the war began. At the same time, Europe idled its nuclear power plants and converted the bulk of its power stations into natural gas-fired systems. Russia was having a field day supplying energy to Europe – and creating a trillion-dollar-per-year energy business right next door in Europe.
It starts to get interesting when you sit back and look at energy prices now (after the war began) in many of these peripheral nations, which are importing LNG (from the US and Israel) at almost 3 times the prices of Russian gas (that used to be piped in from ‘next door’).
Completely separately, Putin had barged into Syria and ‘destroyed’ ISIS (with the help of Iran’s IRGC) and completely undermined regime change in Syria (and the region). Israel wanted revenge against Putin. Toppling Putin, via a proxy war in Ukraine was a means to achieve that.
You see, Israel had also joined in the oil and gas boom and started exploiting oil and gas fields in the Mediterranean (and building its own export terminals in Israel and neighboring Egypt). These are huge fields. The largest gas fields were discovered this century. Beyond their grievance with Putin, they were looking to grab a piece of Russia’s market in Europe. It’s probably also worth noting that there is an equally large field right off the coast of Gaza. The genocide in Gaza, much like the killings in Ukraine, all have an economic basis, it seems.
To put this into real numbers: US LNG exports to Europe (after sanctions were placed on Russia) increased from near zero in 2020 to 55 million tons (55% of Europe’s demand) in 2025. Israeli exports to Europe (after sanctions were placed on Russia) increased from near zero to roughly 10 million tons. Israel ‘cleverly’ exports indirectly through Egypt and Jordan, to I suppose, hide its actual level of exports. It was all very deliberate.
A huge demand was created for cheap Russian gas supply, only to have it shift to the US and Israel at triple the price when Russian gas was cut off! The rug was pulled from under Putin and Europe simultaneously. Everyone expected Putin to go out of business, while the US and Israel were running to the bank! The war, too, motivated most of Europe to increase its defense spending from an average of 1% to 5% of GDP, i.e., increasing by roughly $300 billion a year, resulting in an arms sales boom for both the US and Israel (two major arms suppliers to Europe). Finland (and Sweden) joined NATO. You could argue that in the short term, poking the bear was immensely profitable for the US and Israel.
But here we are, 10 years later. Yes, Putin was poked! But Putin not only survived but thrived. Russian oil and gas exports did not go to zero, nor did Russia go bankrupt. Putin did this by pivoting east. Demand growth in China and India not only made up for the loss of the European market, but all three nations- Russia, China, and India have had record-breaking growth rates (4%, 5%, 6.8% respectively in 2024), while the West – the US and Europe have had (by comparison) anemic growth (0.8% and 2.8% respectively in 2024). Yes, US energy exports have boomed, but the overall development of the economy has been anemic at best (by comparison). Europeans are now paying three times as much in energy costs. Ordinary people in bars joked with me, saying their monthly energy bills are now about the same as their rent payments! Factories are shutting down because of the high cost of energy. There is clearly a massive ‘cost’ in Europe for this war in Ukraine. Conversely, both China and India have experienced a significant decline in their energy import costs by buying energy from Russia at huge discounts. China, which before the Ukraine war was tethering economically, got a new economic wind, with ultra-low energy costs (and managed to stave off a massive decline). The war was a boost to China, India and Russia! To add insult to injury, Indian refiners have been selling refined products from Russian oil in global markets at low prices. And today, 15% of Ukraine’s gasoline and diesel exports come from India (but originate from Russian oil). Russians, too, have mastered the art of black-market commodity sales, and despite sanctions, they can continue to export globally through ship-to-ship transfers and forged documentation of origin. I learnt this firsthand, talking to Russians in saunas in Eastern Europe – i.e., ship captains on break! As a result, they are not only exporting to the East but also to many old customers in the West. Yes, the US and Israel are exporting huge volumes of LNG – but at what cost to Europe and our other allies?
This would be a joke if it weren’t for literally a million deaths on the battlefield, and a vast number of Ukrainians splattered across Europe as refugees. One could argue that this war has brought about one significant gain for Europe, with 7 million Ukrainian immigrants settling in Western Europe. This immigration process was very welcomed by locals and helped reverse birth rate declines in much of Europe among its white population! Throughout Europe, I encountered large populations of Ukrainians who are surviving by working as waiters, janitors, hotel staff, you name it…, and have helped stave off the need for more North African and Turkish (Muslim) immigrants in an inherently racist Europe, with a seriously splintered demographic landscape.
Where does this leave everyone now?
There is a US-led effort to bring the conflict to a peaceful conclusion as fast as possible. Trump, you will recall, promised to end the conflict on his first day in office. Putin appears to be almost humoring the West by slow walking the peace talks. He is clearly on the ascendancy on the battlefield and with his pocketbook. Ukraine has exhausted its military capacity. More arms to Ukraine don’t seem to change the calculus on the field, when Ukraine basically has no soldiers to fight.
Looking at the situation objectively, Putin seems to have irreversibly grabbed all the resource-rich regions of Ukraine, and most of its access to the black sea. His sensitivity to having NATO missiles stationed along its border with Ukraine is not a primary concern. He is not pushing hard to grab land north of Kharkiv in Ukraine, which is closest to Moscow in distance. However, he is seeking some form of Ukrainian neutrality, i.e., similar clauses to the Minsk agreements (Zelensky broke), with Ukraine not joining NATO. We’re almost back to where we were 10 years ago, with the exception that Russia has now grabbed a considerable part of Ukraine’s land.
Then, I am sure, there is the small matter that Russian bank accounts were confiscated, Russian pipelines were destroyed, and Russia lost a lot of business because of this war – and Putin is suing for reparations. In Alaska, Trump attempted to convince Russia that it can more than compensate for these losses by trading directly with the US and even aligning with the US going forward. Trump tried to peel Russia from China and India. It didn’t work. There is still a considerable amount of work to get to a peaceful settlement. And Russia is in no rush to ‘make a deal’. Trump today admitted that the US has pushed India and Russia into China’s lap – perhaps irreversibly. It’s a strategic disaster.
In fact, the longer the war goes on, the better it is for Russia. Russia’s slow, steady, continuous war of attrition is bankrupting Europe – not Russia. Indirectly, he is sending a new message out to Ukrainians and Europeans by bleeding them dry. He wants Zelensky and European leaders to be slaughtered by their own people – not Russian soldiers – for the misery caused in Ukraine.
You already see this in backlashes against the Uber-right-wing Nationalists in Ukraine (that were at the core of Zelensky’s power), and the rise of the Uber-right-wingers in Germany, France, the UK, etc. Europe’s political landscape is being twisted and torn badly. There is a civil war in the making. In the past 3 weeks, 13 AfD candidates (this is Germany’s right-wing party) have died mysterious deaths. Zelensky is refusing to hold general elections.
US/Israel poked the bear, but now Europe is carrying the bag. Europe is leading the war effort and expending resources to continue it, not to mention paying a massive premium for energy. One of the most humorous pictures about where we are now is the picture of Trump in the Oval Office behind his desk, and like good little school children, European leaders are sitting in a semi-circle around him (taking orders). The situation has become ridiculous.
By contrast, this week, in China, there was a heads-of-state meeting of the members of SCO with a procession of heads of state led by Russia, China, and (comically) North Korea. Due to sanctions and being excluded from the SWIFT banking system, Russia has developed its own bank clearing systems, enabling inter-bank transfers and trading among partners in non-dollar currencies outside Western banking systems. This trade with other SCO members, such as Iran, has blossomed from $1.7 bn in 2020 to $5 Bn in 2024! There is double-digit growth across many of SCO’s partners. Two-thirds of the world’s population, and more than half of the global economy, is now economically networked outside of the US and Europe’s sanctions system – and trading without using the US dollar. These ‘partners’ are all growing at much faster rates than the partnership between the US and Europe. This sustained shift will have a substantial negative impact on the US and its ability to sell Treasury Bills. Here is a graph showing the use of the US dollar as a fiat currency over time. There will be a time – maybe a decade or so from now – when deposits in other currencies or gold will dwarf US dollar deposits as a wealth holding mechanism. The writing is on the wall! The trends are clear!
Can Trump or anyone reverse this? What will Putin do next?
There are a couple of ‘Trump Cards’ (excuse the pun) that Trump has in his hands to disrupt this wholesale shift. The first one is “tariffs”, and the second one is “active blocking of trade routes”. There is a belief within his administration that using tariffs can provide a mechanism to control the actions of other countries and dictate specific outcomes in line with US interests.
But tariffs are a poor tool for implementing foreign policy objectives. If the US controlled a massive chunk of trade with any single nation, like say Mexico, then obviously Tariff increases would be fatal for that trading partner. However, it’s fascinating that tariff increases with China did, in fact, reduce China’s trade with the US; yet, overall trade volume globally for China increased after the tariffs took effect. China replaced US trade with trade with the rest of the world. Brazil has done the same. India has too. There are many reasons for this, but on the one hand, the rest of the world’s economy is growing faster than the West. On the other hand, the same products seem to be miraculously shipped to intermediary countries with favorable trading terms for both China and the US and then transshipped with different origin documentation to the US anyway. People find ways of circumventing tariffs, as they do with taxes. It’s a naïve way to exert influence. We are pushing away trading partners and constructive engagement. They will move their products and services elsewhere.
The core problem with tariffs is the negative impact they will have (or are already having) on the US economy. Not only will it NOT achieve its stated foreign policy goals, but it will also tank the US economy. This month, the US has more unemployed people than job openings. Job Growth is trending badly. Firing the head of the Labor Statistics office can’t hide the truth. Building massive data centers and deporting Immigrants won’t solve what will become a fundamental structural and negative impact of Tariffs. Trump is not well-versed in economics. He is being very short-sighted and seduced by the money being collected.
Physically blocking active trade is another strategy being employed. Short of shutting down shipping lanes or boarding ships, the US is positioning itself in key strategic locations to block trade physically. One recent example of this is the recent announcement of a US-protected trading corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey. The idea is that North-South trade (from India, Iran, etc., north to Russia via Armenia and Georgia – nominally both Chinese and Russian neutral states) can be cut off with an East-West corridor from the Caspian Sea to Turkey and then Europe! And there are several other paths the US is taking to essentially block or cut off trade links between Russia and others, duplicating what Ukraine did (cut off Russia).
It seems one other counter-strategy idea is to create massive chaos inside Iran, which could perhaps lead to a major regional war, and lead to the cut off of Russian Indian trade, for example. There is a Brazilian analyst (Pepe Escobar) whose whole thesis is that the West wants to create an “empire of chaos” so it can rule the world. Tearing Iran apart would be a good example of that. I somehow don’t think Russia or China will ‘not allow’ that. Iran’s mullahs, after decades of secret alliance with the West (Iran-Contra, Iraq Invasion, etc.), have now pivoted to a coalition with Russia and China when they realized the West was not capable of agreement, i.e., with the death of the JCPOA. And I think Russia and China will support the Mullahs. They are, after all, providing key components for Iran’s missile defense systems.
Trump will play every card he has in his hand – that is for sure. And the world needs to get ready for more chaos. But Putin has a few cards too, and he is not bashful about playing them. The war in Ukraine has emboldened him. What might he do next?
The consensus from my trip was that Putin is unlikely to invade the Baltic states (even though Russia has a piece of land on the other side of those states). The Baltic states have no natural resources to grab and would not help Putin grow the Russian economy. They don’t offer much. Russia already has a Baltic Sea port (St. Petersburg), it doesn’t need two.
There have been rumors of a potential grab of parts of Montenegro if Putin continues along the Black Sea and takes over Ukraine’s Odessa. But I think this is a less likely scenario.
In my view, the next big ‘prize’ for Putin is Azerbaijan. Either Putin or Iran, or together, will take Azerbaijan next. It was interesting to see how Putin completely ignored Aliev at the SCO meeting, and his eye contact with Aliev when he shook his hand was a dark, cold, dangerous stare. Azerbaijan has been providing fighter jets to Ukraine. Aliev’s father was a KGB double agent, meaning he was spying for Britain while serving as the local head of the KGB office. And we all know what Putin does with double agents – he has them thrown out of windows in high-rise buildings. Putin will also make a set of complicated economic calculations involving Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources! Azerbaijan has literally trillions of dollars of mineral wealth. And Azerbaijan could provide a key ‘umbilical’ trade route for China, Russia and India around the Caspian Sea. Aliev has also grabbed some of Russia’s gas and oil market share with Europe, like a petty opportunist. Putin knows this. Azerbaijan provides Israel with 40% of its oil energy and buys 75% of its arms from Israel. Putin fully understands Israel’s role in Zelensky’s rise. You need to remember Zelensky and his whole cabinet are not just Jewish, but they are Zionists and have second homes in Israel. Israel is a principal arms provider to Zelensky. And Israel, too, has been another grabber of Russia’s gas market in Europe from its Mediterranean gas fields. Victoria Nuland, who recently retired from the US State Department, was an Israeli American shill who led the plan to “Poke the Bear”.
I am convinced that, after Zelensky, Putin will turn his attention to Aliyev and Azerbaijan in partnership with Iran. Iran has a significant bone to pick with Aliyev, too, since he allowed Israeli drones and fighters to use Azerbaijan’s airspace to attack Iran. There are many other grievances, too, such as the split-up of the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan’s theft of Iranian natural resources.
Slowly, Putin and partners will clean up with no real strategic response by the West. The West really has no strategy to speak of.
And the truth is, we really didn’t need to poke them! It was a dumb, naïve, and exuberant strategy – from the same people who sold us the Iraq war. It has Israel’s control of US foreign policy and strategy fingerprints all over it. The US has become a de facto servant of Israeli interests and policies. At the time of the war, despite its size, Russia’s economy was smaller than Italy’s. We could have – should have – sold our LNG products into fast-growing Asian markets, i.e., the rest of the world, and avoided this bloodshed and mess. Putin was completely underestimated. Clearly, we did not think through the consequences and were led down the proverbial garden path by our ally, Israel, and their American double agent. Israel leads, and we follow! We are American idiots!
From where I sit, the war in Ukraine is going to end, but it will not end quickly or cleanly. According to my observations, peace will lead to a total undermining of Zelensky (he will disappear to Israel and bang his head on the Wailing Wall every day for the rest of his life), and Europe will turn into a massive mess politically and economically. Putin will exert revenge on all the co-conspirators who stole market share from him. Everyone who undermined Russia and cooperated with Ukraine will be a target after he’s done with Ukraine. It will be a slow, steady, and definite continuous war of attrition in other theaters against the West. I don’t see Russia changing course and trusting Trump or pivoting west.
For now, China, India, and others, such as Brazil and Iran, seem to be more reliable partners for Russia. I think Western attempts at turning Iran into a mess will fail. One way or another, the Mullahs always seem to prevail by pivoting. (Which in my view is sad, but Iran is caught up in this massive ‘game’ between the West and East and can’t seem to navigate outside it to chart its own course). Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICS) will slowly but surely create a separate economic sphere to operate in, and this ‘zone’ will grow at a faster rate than the West for the foreseeable future.
The war in Ukraine has led the world into a whole new economic order. Let’s not forget who conspired to get it ‘done’: Victoria Nuland, no less—a US-Israeli operative. Let’s look at her history. She (and her neo-con husband) was key to getting the war in Iraq going (don’t believe me – look it up. Iraq was another own goal for America. Millions died and suffered at the hands of these and other dual Mossad-CIA-backed strategists who dominate America’s intelligence services. And it turns out they have gotten all their analysis wrong. We pay them well to be wrong! Look at their homes in Bethesda, or Virginia, and Tel Aviv, and the cars they drive. Is anyone holding them accountable for all this mess (the huge ruble of blood and treasure) that they created? Why are we letting Israel dictate our foreign policy? The only winner here has been Israel.
Maybe Tulsi Gabbard is right, we should fire more than half of them. They’ve screwed everyone… future generations of Americans, all of Europe, virtually all West Asia… the whole world with their dirty, evil planning and analysis. We need to play to win not lose.
