I just returned to the US from a visit to a handful of Persian Gulf states, and all I can think of is how Schizophrenic the relationship between these states and Iran is.
On the one hand, it’s easy to spot massive Iranian influence in the region. Everything from food to culture to business and even simple demographics points to a powerful person-to-person relationship between Iran and these countries. In many cases, the relationships were established literally for several millennia. The ‘presence’ of Iran just can’t be erased – at the whim of the British or American or Arab elite.
Iranians are dominant in the souqs (commercial areas) of major cities in the region. Many of these businessmen have fully integrated into their local communities and now carry local passports. By ‘dominant,’ I mean that Iranian-origin businessmen hold more than 50% of retail units.
Shia Islam is also prevalent in varying degrees across the region. In Bahrain, it’s relatively easy to bump into locals who have visited Iran’s Imam Reza shrine and visited Iraq’s two (Shia) shrines in Karbala and Najaf. In Muscat, there’s a Shia Mosque right next to the Souq. There is, therefore, religious connectivity. What is also very interesting is that there was no evidence of tension between these Shia communities and other groups. In Oman, you can go to jail for verbal abuse involving religious affiliations. There is no tolerance for spiritual abuse.
In restaurants, Persian recipes exist as part of virtually every menu. Everywhere I go, I take food tours, and it’s fascinating how in some places, Iranian recipes are passed off as local!!
Talking to locals – when I disclosed my Iranian heritage, I was always warmly received. I expected latent, sub-surface distaste for Iran or Iranians, but nowhere was this evident in any form. Iranians are respected.
On the other hand, it’s not hard to spot the massive anti-Iranian elements in the region. The United States has an air force base in Qatar and a naval base in Bahrain. Both bases are now on high alert against Iranian activity in the region.
It really wasn’t that long ago, when ALL these states funded Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran. This funding complemented America’s $400 million line of credit for Saddam’s arms purchases in a very bloody and dirty 8-year war with Iran.
These states are being armed to the hilt. Saudi Arabia recently signed a historic $142 billion defense agreement with the US in May 2025. And this year alone, the UAE purchased $1.4 billion from the U.S. for six CH-47F Chinook helicopters and F-16 parts, and an agreement with Israel for Hermes 900 UAVs. Arms sales these past 10 years to the region have exceeded $1 trillion! Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest importer of arms, spending almost 25% of its budget on defense. And who are they scared of? Iran!!!
The Persian Gulf is always called the Arabian Gulf on the more current maps. But you also see, inside their museums, ancient maps of the region that identify the same body of water as Sinus Persicus. I learned during this trip that it was, in fact, a British advisor to the rulers of Bahrain (Sir Charles Belgrave) who first proposed changing the name of the Persian Gulf to the “Arabian” Gulf. The proposal reached the British Foreign Office and Parliament. Later, after Iran’s oil nationalization, Britain was desperate to sabotage Iranian interests in the region to avenge its losses. The task of reviving the “Arabian Gulf” project was entrusted to Roderick Owen. Using the cover of a shadowy functionary of the AIOC, Owen was in fact a senior MI6 officer in the Middle East. The primary product of Owen’s campaign was a book called “The Golden Bubble of the Arabian Gulf”. This book constituted the first literary work of any significance to popularize the term “Arabian Gulf”. Thus, the campaign to distort and eventually displace the historical term “Persian Gulf” originates in the retreat and defeat of British colonialism in the Middle East, not Arab locals. In fact, several of our tour guides – who were Arab – used the term Persian Gulf liberally in our presence.
There are no direct flights from Bahrain to Tehran. But there are flights to Kish Island from Bahrain! Bahrainis visiting Mashhad travel via Dubai and board the same planes, i.e., don’t deplane, as they turn around and fly to Iran! While Qatar Airways does fly to Iran, it’s worth noting that its flights to Europe or the US carefully avoid Iranian airspace. The same applies to airlines based in the UAE, like Emirates and Etihad.
It’s all so screwed up.
Clearly, these states are under tremendous Western influence. You can’t help but think that if it weren’t for Western influence, Iran and its neighbors across the Persian Gulf would be warmly engaged, rolling in bed with each other.
It is, after all, Western Companies and technology that are extracting Oil and Gas from the region and helping fund the massive development of the area. Qatar, my friends, has transformed over the past 10 years. Dubai has transformed within a generation, i.e., 20 years. Every state has seen its GDP multiply by 10 in a handful of years.
It has been sanctions against Iran that have fueled so much of this growth. Iran’s oil and gas exports have been substantially constrained, enabling these states to export their oil and gas resources at higher prices without a significant oil and gas producer (i.e., Iran) in the market. For example, Qatar and Iran share the Pars Gas field. Today, Qatar has become a massive hub for LNG exports worldwide (from this gas field)—to the tune of over $100 billion per year— while Iran can barely extract enough gas to feed its declining power grid at home.
Iran’s role as a transportation hub has been massively scaled back, enabling the growth of Doha and Dubai as major air hubs and Dubai as a central shipping hub.
Sanction busting via Dubai has been how Iran has ‘survived’. Every item imported into Iran is transshipped via Dubai, with a transfer fee to the UAE government. This is while Iran has a major port across the waterway at Bandar Abbas and one just outside the Persian Gulf – Chah Bahar – which would be better regional shipping hubs, but because of sanctions, cannot be accessed.
As for air traffic, Tehran is over 1,000 km closer to Western Europe and has a high-altitude airport, which means airplanes would need less fuel to take off and land. Those savings from using Tehran as an air hub are huge – over 20% of aircraft operating costs. And, to boot, Iran has a surplus of airplane mechanics and trained engineers. Iran could serve not only as an air hub but also as a regional aircraft repair center. Iran produces more scientists and engineers each year than Qatar’s entire population! Qatar Airways, Emirates Airlines, Etihad Airways, Gulf Air, Saudia (airlines) … ALL must import mechanics from places like the Philippines, Bangladesh, Pakistan, etc., and personnel to keep flying.
And the fear of Iran has led to massive deployments of arms and Western bases in these countries. Not to be overlooked is the trillion-dollar scale of aircraft purchases by these airlines from the West to operate their vast fleets. Dubai Airport now handles almost 100 million passengers per year, and Qatar’s Doha Airport hit 65 million passengers last year.
It’s as if they are trading planes, becoming a financial hub, massive exports of oil and gas, in exchange for getting the West to extend sanctions against Iran.
It’s clearly not that their populations hate Iran, but just ‘simple business’. On the one hand, Iranians are admired and engaged inside their countries. On the other hand, to advance their economic agenda, these Arab states are deeply involved with the West to undermine Iran (and Iranians). It’s schizophrenic. It’s a love/hate thing. It also paints a digital picture – what is good for them must be bad for Iran.
I am reminded of the story about Michael Jackson and Paul McCartney (the Beatles). Apparently, there was an auction of the Beatles’ music rights (i.e., the Beatles’ song portfolio) by the estate’s copyright owners (not the Beatles themselves). Paul McCartney was the highest bidder – hoping to win back the rights to the songs he had helped write, only to find himself outbid by his good friend Michael Jackson. When Jackson won the auction, Paul McCartney was enraged. How could you do this to a friend? McCartney screamed across a phone line to Jackson. Michael Jackson replied, ” It’s business, Paul—just Business.
Iran’s relationship with these Persian Gulf states is similar. Iranians have been good neighbors and good friends for a long time. But these same neighbors are clearly in bed with the West to extend sanctions and contain Iran, i.e., depress Iran’s economy, and undermine Iranian prosperity – because it’s in their interests to do so.
There is an anti-Iran industry of government lobbyists in Washington and London. These Persian Gulf states spend lavishly buying influence-peddling anti-Iranian sentiment.
On the one hand, one day they love you – on the other, the next day they peddle hatred. It’s schizophrenic.
The West is happy to oblige these Arabs, because, apparently, for a long time, they thought it was in their interest too, to sell arms and planes and to sell oil and gas. But this is ending.
Anti-Iran lobbyists in the West have distracted the West. These lobbyists have pulled the American elite’s eyes off the big prize. A few smart analysts in Langley have finally figured out that by sanctioning Iran and Russia, they have inadvertently assisted China’s economy by essentially giving China cheap energy. Americans have finally realized that by supporting these Persian Gulf nations at the expense of their own interests, they are fueling China’s growth. Yes, these Persian Gulf states are big markets for Western products, but this gain is far exceeded by the gains China has made by dealing with Iran!
One hundred million Iranians dwarf the tiny populations of these nations. Iran is huge and vital. Iran and Central Asia are more important than these Arab states.
As you walk around the streets of these countries along the Persian Gulf, you will notice one other very crucial factor: Chinese imports. One of the historic justifications of sanctioning and containing Iran was that the West would have these export markets to itself without interference from Iran’s manufacturing sector nearby. Iranian cars and home appliances would be kept out of these markets. This was true for a decade or two, but China is now eating our lunch! Chinese knockoffs of Land Rover and Range Rover are selling for 25% of the cost of their Western counterparts! These markets have not been protected after all. Yes, Iran has been shut out, but China is in there.
The West has figured out that if Afghanistan and Central Asia are to prosper and become export markets, they need access to Iran’s ports on the north side of the Persian Gulf.
If the West has sold Trillions of dollars’ worth of planes to these Arab state airlines, you must ask yourself: wouldn’t Iran, too, have been an even larger market for the West? Or Airlines in these “Stans”? Haven’t we left it a little late to open Iran up, now that China is producing aircraft equivalent to Boeing 737s at a fraction of the cost of Western planes? Iran not only has a massive logistical and strategic cost advantage at these Persian Gulf airports but may also gain an even greater benefit by buying Chinese planes when it finally opens. At the same time, Arab Airlines will remain saddled with huge fleets and debt that must be paid over the coming decades.
Arab lobbyists have created a digital narrative where the West essentially must choose between partnership with these states versus Iran. And this narrative has been further supported by the Brits, who essentially hate Iran and Iranians. You see from history that it’s been the Brits who have pushed for anti-Iranianism. And the prime beneficiaries of Iran sanctions, beyond these Arab states, have been the Brits, not the U.S. . Shell Oil dominates Qatar’s gas production. BP dominates Azerbaijan’s oil production. British banks and companies dominate Dubai’s financial sector.
But it’s clear now that this has been a false narrative—a false dichotomy. America needs to be shrewdly self-interested and calculating in directing its policies.
It’s becoming increasingly apparent that Iran offers access to Central Asia and a vast national market. Arab states may benefit economically from Iran’s sanctions. But Iran is also – in effect- sanctioning the West, and this is not in the interests of the West. The West has been locked out of Iran, too—and China is benefiting. China dominates Central Asia.
Qatar’s emir might gift an old plane to Trump, but maybe – just maybe – Trump is shrewd enough to know that this gift comes at a considerable cost.
In many ways, Iran offers far more to the West and its allies than these Arab states can. These Arab states have a schizophrenic relationship with Iran because their strategy is fundamentally unnatural. It’s an artificial situation. It goes against the will of their populations. It goes against their historical linkages. It’s not good business.
The reality is that growth in these Arab markets has stalled. And the vast opportunities that the region’s building boom once offered no longer exist. These Arab states have also undermined themselves by essentially locking out Iranians from participating and traveling to these countries in droves. Couldn’t Iranians – right across the Persian Gulf – travel to fill stadiums and hotel rooms too? Isn’t there a business case for massive growth in trade between Iran and these countries? I sense the whole dynamic in the region is about to shift. There is a more ‘natural’ state of affairs. The entire situation needs to be reassessed without the undue influence of these lobbyists.
It’s time Iran is ‘opened’ up, and the whole business case recast. You get the sense that these Arab states, while lobbying to sanction Iran, are quietly supporting the Mullahs to maintain their pro-sanctions arguments. Regime change in Iran would destroy these arguments.
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