Before I begin this analysis of the situation in the Middle East and its consequences, I want to warn people that this examination is going to be largely secular and nuanced, which means people on both sides of the divide are going to complain, and frankly, I don’t care. To be clear, I am not interested in the plight of the Palestinians, the Islamic regime in Iran, or the conspiracy theories on the internet. I find appeals of empathy and compassion to be naïve. I do not waste my time worrying about them. Hence, being cancelled on so many subs.
In fairness, I also do not care about the Israeli government, and I have no vested interest in whether they survive. In the past, Israeli-supported organisations have helped form militant leftist groups and anti-conservative sentiments in the US, and the fact that leftist activists have turned on Israel in recent years is rather poetic. I recognise that many Zionist Christians would disagree with this position, believing that Israel is the only Western ally keeping watch over the Holy Land. I am also aware that numerous disinformation agents online are paid by both sides, as Israel and Islamic governments run these digital operations constantly, expending vast amounts of money to employ armies of social media shills whose singular job is to disrupt sincere discussion and sway American opinion to support one side or the other. This tells me a great deal about how important the US population is to the world’s geopolitical future, as everyone wants us to pick their team or hate their opponent.
What I care about first and foremost is how geopolitical events and our involvement will affect America and American interests (where I live), and what I have learned in recent years is that it is easy enough to predict events but not necessarily outcomes. There are people who believe every international conflict or crisis will end in global doom, yet none of them has been correct so far. Of course, all it takes is the right crisis to trigger a Black Swan, and this is where many of us build lighthouses, warding ships away from the rocky shores of any incident that might become a world-ending singularity.
It is important to understand that dramatic geopolitical shifts can act as linchpins, impacting our lives through a chain of dominoes that is not immediately apparent until years later, and potential does not mean certainty. As I have been pointing out for many years, collapse is a process, not an event. I have predicted the development of an unavoidable war footing between Iran and the US, with Israel as instigator or convenient rationale, and I argued that this would escalate. I predicted the initial air strikes of the primary targets. I predicted Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has now occurred. I predicted a ground invasion into Lebanon by Israel, which has not yet happened, followed by the eventual ground invasion by US and Israeli forces into Iran.
Immediate consequences could include a spike in oil and gas prices, as over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the elevated possibility of planned and autonomous terror attacks—the recent mass shooting in Austin, Texas appears to be the first—and there is the danger of a potential military draft should the war carry on for more than a couple of years or if it turns into an occupation dealing with a large insurgency. Finally, there is a growing risk of increased hostility toward Russia and China, potentially catalysing a world war; this is a worst-case scenario view of the conflict and not necessarily the most likely outcome.
For example, in Venezuela, naysayers wailed and raged over Donald Trump’s black-bag operation that resulted in the capture of illegitimate dictator Nicolas Maduro. They claimed with certainty that this action would initiate Vietnam Part II, yet they were entirely wrong. Millions of Venezuelans around the world rejoiced, and the Venezuelan population has done nothing in the name of bringing Maduro back. Trump’s critics ignored the applause from Venezuelan nationals and argued that their opinions do not matter because their support of Trump’s invasion is inconvenient to the narrative that he is a mindless warmonger and that he is betraying his voter base, which is a childish response to complex geopolitical dynamics. Many dictatorships deserve to die, and the libertarian methodology of sitting around and doing nothing while criticising those who act is growing stale. The American public is not inspired by passivity. This does not mean we should go to war with Iran per se, but I think US patriots are done with ego-stroking debates on constitutional and ideological theory and want to see results.
Decapitation
If moral justification is the issue, then there is a fair case to be made for the decapitation of the Islamic regime in Iran, as the Mullahs have engaged in a similar brutal theocratic oppression we have seen with the Taliban in Afghanistan, but on an industrial scale. If you are a woman, a political dissident, or a religious minority in Iran, you have limited rights and can be arrested or murdered for any reason at any given moment. Just because Muslims happen to agree with conservatives that transgender activists are predatory lunatics does not mean we have anything else in common. Most critics will argue that regime change in Iran is only meant to benefit Israel and not the Iranian people, yet it benefits many countries, not just Israel. I would also argue that Trump’s real goal is probably to further isolate China from its international oil sources, while Israel is a secondary concern or a useful excuse. Trump’s decapitation strategy against Venezuela, his policies on the Panama Canal, and his Iran strikes conveniently cut China off from around 20% of its oil resources, which is significant and could change China’s military development efforts dramatically. That said, just because Trump was right on Venezuela does not mean he will be right on Iran.
The US is very good at taking out enemy leadership and blowing things up, but we are completely inept when it comes to occupation, and this is where we always lose. An occupation requires the majority support from the foreign population; without it, there is no point. In Iran, Trump might have it. We must wait and see what the Iranian population does in reaction to the decapitation strikes. If too large a percentage of the populace throws support behind the Islamists, then the limited strikes will have to evolve into a ground war, and a ground war without domestic alliances would turn into a quagmire. Then there is the question of the Strait of Hormuz. Clearing the strait and keeping it operational will be difficult, as Iran can run interference on oil shipping for months merely by targeting tankers with thousands of drones. I do not have to explain what one Shahed drone can do to a ship loaded with combustible oil. If it were my operation, I would target the strait with long-range artillery or ballistic missiles supported by drone spotters. All it takes is one large sunken ship to close the Hormuz for weeks. This is a problem if Trump’s strikes on top officials do not inspire a popular revolution.
The Hormuz closure will mean higher gas prices, though I suspect part of Trump’s strategy is to use Venezuelan oil exports to offset the Hormuz bottleneck. If Trump cannot keep prices relatively low, then the American public will be very unhappy. We have already spent four years suffering under Biden’s inflation. We cannot absorb any more. Russian and Chinese involvement in the region appears to be limited to weapon sales and logistics. Russia has a Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran, but it does not contain a mutual defence clause. I worry far more that elitists in Europe are doing everything in their power to start a world war with Russia by interfering in Ukraine. Speaking of the other conflict in the east, it is interesting to me that under the Biden Administration, Democrats avidly and rabidly demanded direct confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. Like Iran, it is just another country that has little to do with us, yet they were happy to risk nuclear conflagration over that foreign entanglement. This is why I do not take leftists seriously at all when it comes to their anti-war rhetoric.
Quagmire
As far as Israel is concerned, they make off like bandits in this situation. They know it, and I am sure they are secretly proud of that fact. They would never be able to fight this war alone, but I am not going to cry over the destruction of a Muslim theocracy just because Israel gains something from it. The issue is America, and whether this war will escalate out of control and turn into a global crisis that harms us. I will admit that Trump has displayed a knack for executing limited military operations with far-reaching effects at limited cost. He has proven naysayers wrong on several occasions. Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth asserts that there will be no quagmire. If this is possible to pull off, then it will be the Trump Administration’s greatest magic trick yet. But what started as a limited weekend operation turned into a 4-week minimum program and is now being slated as a 6-month campaign, possibly involving troops on the ground. All the elements for a protracted war and a quagmire are in place.
Balkanization
If we don’t put boots on the ground, then the outcome will be chaos and civil breakdown in Iran, followed by balkanization and widespread insurgency far outside the boundaries of the country. We already know the CIA is preparing the Kurds (and others) for a ground-based invasion. This will not be pretty. The goal, obviously, then, will be to balkanize Iran… but it could also result in a very chaotic outcome (much like Libya, with factions vying for control of major regions – for example, a war between the Kurds and Azeris for major parts of northwestern Iran). Trying to manage and clean up the mess would likely result in the same kind of failed occupation the US experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is a gamble that risks a sharp division within the conservative base. It also risks the left (groups like the MEK) coming into power.
Any major disaster on Trump’s watch could serve the interests of globalists seeking to exploit a crisis to further demonise the concepts of nationalism and conservatism. At that point, the only solution would have to be a total and unrelenting crusade, with or without the Trump Administration. If Iranians want to protect their children and the future in general, the MEK can never be allowed to take power in Iran.
World War III
There is a fourth possibility of the war expanding and seeding a future world war, i.e., China taking advantage of the quagmire and chaos to invade Taiwan, or a Russian invasion of the Balkans… As they say, you strike while the Iron is hot. The war could, for example, ‘push’ China to take kinetic action if its core interests and future are put at risk (which is precisely what might happen if the Straits of Hormuz are shut down).
For now, there is also a fifth outcome. I am erring on the side of the Iranian government staying in power, and a nominal win for Trump after a couple of months of limited strikes and covert operations. There are compelling reasons to maintain the status quo. Let’s never forget that it took 20 years, 4 administrations, trillions of dollars to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. There are compelling arguments for that. First, you can imagine Arabs spending literally trillions of dollars buying arms to protect themselves from Iran. Then, of course, Iran will remain sanctioned and contained, which will eliminate Iran as a global competitor in many key markets like energy and transportation (to name a few). There’s no compelling reason to open Iran up now. It can serve a useful purpose as a regional bogeyman, which can be engaged as needed if anyone in the region steps out of line. And it will probably be the fastest way to end this war without prolonging it, which could collapse the global economy. Yes, I am not putting any bets on the current Iranian opposition outside Iran to save the day.
In the meantime, until an outcome ensues, I do expect a wave of attempted terror attacks in the West, even more NGO-financed riots by leftist activists, and probably an emergency effort by DHS’s ICE militia to deport more Muslim immigrants from the country to other Minneapolis-type cities like LA, or even New York. The cynics say nothing ever happens, except when something happens, so keep your head on a swivel.
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